Purple Lottery 1

[03SVTCobra]

Either way there is going to be unhappy people but there has to be a better way. It really shouldn't have been opened up to people who purchased and haven't solved the puzzles either.

[pcad]

If they were willing to make a few more purples, say a total of 20, they could have let those that earned their way to the competition have a lottery for the 10 purples with even odds. The rest could have a more general lottery for the rest, again with even odds.

They've already committed themselves to making more than was first expected so if a few more makes people happy, why not. A run of 20 puts the purple on par with the Black and HandMade. Still plenty rare. To differentiate them the groups could have different finishes. Perhaps Gold for the competition group, 3 nickle plated for the CE group, 3 unplated for the rest and 1 held back for the Pro speed champion. Sort of like the Olympic medals, Gold, Silver and Bronze.

I doubt they would do this and I doubt it would make everyone happy, but that's nothing new. Just thinking out loud.

[03SVTCobra]

Wasn't there only 16 people in the series code competition? Take away the 2 who won. Give the remaining 14 a purple and raffle off 4 of them and there's your 20!
Raffle off between the series code competitors.
Let numbers be chosen based on solved puzzles not purchased.
Go back to the original leader boards and raffle based on that.

There are so many ways to do it and no matter which one they used some will remain unhappy. Now that anyone who purchased one is in the lottery it will be hard to remove them. There doesn't seem to be any light at the end of the tunnel with this.

[pcad]

Not that it makes any difference, but I thought the fastest with each puzzle in the UK and the RotW would each then get a purple and those ten plus the two series code winners would see who could open the unknown purple puzzle fastest for a cash award. Or something like that. That whole thing would involve 12 puzzles. Now a 13th lives and one is set aside for the Pro. That leaves 6 for the rest.

Despite these ideas I think Chris and Joe are set on giving everyone with an extreme R1 a shot at one of ten purples. I don't think they realized how the current setup is going to play out or how long it will take. OTOH, maybe they did, we just don't know other than Joseph's post months ago.

Until Naz and Jerry check in, the first lottery could already be over for all we know.

[Chyron]

I don't think they realized how the current setup is going to play out or how long it will take.

Statistically speaking, if my math is correct -- someone with 15 picks has an overall greater chance of making it through round 42, than they -ever- had of getting booted out. at 43 is when I figure the probability says it's actually more likely to have been booted out in any of the previous 42 rounds...

With 14 picks I'm looking at rounds 31/32
13 - 22/23
12 - 16/17
Less - Yeah you are probably long gone.

[pcad]

Sounds right. The probability of losing on any one round with 15 numbers is about 0.06 . The probability of surviving 42 rounds with 15 numbers is 0.94 ^ 42 which is roughly 0.06 .

Still no guarantee since the sample size of 40 is too small. Could be longer, might be shorter.

[Chyron]

Similar but much shorter graph if I look assuming no bonus ball.

15 - 23/24
14 - 17/18
13 - 13/14

Yeah they should have never let that ball be used, we'd have been done with this round like a month ago!

[LOSTpuzzle]

I was a bit bored at work today, so I decided to whip up a simulator and find out my approximate odds of winning a purple with 10 numbers.

I ran the simulation about 5000 times with a variety of distributions (x number of people with 1 number, y number of people with 2 numbers, ... z number of people with 15 numbers).

And the conclusion I came up with is its extremely unlikely I'm going to get a purple. I came up with about a 0.73% chance of winning.

In the 5000 times I ran the sim, no one under 8 numbers won.
8 numbers won 0.03%
9 numbers won 0.2%
10 numbers won 0.73%
11 numbers won 1%
12 numbers won 4%
13 numbers won 14%
14 numbers won 27%
15 numbers won 52%

(I know the numbers don't add up exactly to 100%, but there's some rounding in these numbers).

[Manifestjp]

I'm just personally chaffed that all the hard work that all of us loyal and long time revo enthusiests put into the competition was for not. I'm disappointed that what qualifys someone for the purple is $£ spent not loyalty to the brand and all the hard work that many have put into this competition. There are only a fistful of revoers that climbed the leader boards and they should be rewarded for such efforts. Nuff said.

[03SVTCobra]

I'm just personally chaffed that all the hard work that all of us loyal and long time revo enthusiests put into the competition was for not. I'm disappointed that what qualifys someone for the purple is $£ spent not loyalty to the brand and all the hard work that many have put into this competition. There are only a fistful of revoers that climbed the leader boards and they should be rewarded for such efforts. Nuff said.

Exactly
I came late to the party so I may not be a long time revoer but I completely agree with what you just said. That being said. Part of the reason I was so drawn to Revo was the leaderboards and the comp. I purchased a complete matching numbered set and reserved red and orange with the anticipation of getting in to the comp somehow. I knew it was a longshot but I went for it anyway. I put in the time and opened blue through gold. All with the understanding that I was on the reserve list for most of the puzzles but there was a chance I would end up being bumped up due to people not being able to attend. I feel like all the effort was just thrown out the window.