Purple Lottery 3

[bluesign2k]

Hadn't realised I hadn't done an update after the Wednesday draw...

Unfortunately for halfbake69, he was the only person eliminated in that round. This leaves 19 people still in the running.

Its odd that the eliminations seemed to have tailed off early in this round of draws. Not that many left though now

[halfbake69]

Yeeeeh i Feel special

[walther]

Its odd that the eliminations seemed to have tailed off early in this round of draws. Not that many left though now

Hmmm, this time last round we were down to 11 people. More people must have the same numbers again like Round1.

[mattangel]

Out

[pcad]

Saturday August 24th, 2013
Lotto numbers for the
9th round of the Purple Lottery

1 - 5 - 20 - 26 - 40 - 42 - 48

[bluesign2k]

5 people eliminated, some large number holders too... a 15, a 13 and two with 12.
14 people remain, highest number of matches was 3.

[walther]

5 people eliminated, some large number holders too... a 15, a 13 and two with 12.
14 people remain, highest number of matches was 3.

So, what does that leave? This is just an educated guess....
9 numbers: 2
10 numbers: 3
11 numbers: 1
12 numbers: 1
13 numbers: 2
14 numbers: 1
15 numbers: 4

[pcad]

That's what my guess would look like. BS2K gave us the breakdown after round #6. We don't know the breakdown of the 4 people eliminated in round 7. That throws some uncertainty into the mix, but if this guess is wrong it would mean that some people with a lot of numbers were eliminated while those with fewer numbers survived. Certainly possible, just not as likely.

Percentage-wise, losing 5 people in round 9 (26%) is second only to the first round where 30% were eliminated. If we continue at this rate the 3rd lottery should be over by the 14th round. No way of knowing of course, just guessing.

[ezamover]

Thanks for your analysis Pcad ...
It has made interesting reading.

I was the one with 3 numbers ....
And in an unprecedented move I am going to announce what mine are.

2
5
8
11
13
16
20
22
26
32
33
37
38
45
49

These are the same numbers I have held in all the rounds,

I came close, in a previous round... BL2K might be able to tell you how close I can't remember.

Back in my deep dark basic programming days circa 1988 using BASIC not visual basic one on an XT TURBO PC I wrote a lotto program.

It was a wheeling system. going for numbers that had not come up yet.
It automaticly printed the lotto tickets for me on my $3k laser printer ( a fortune at the time) and I used to submit them to the lotto agents until they banned that practice.

In reality is was a complete waste of time ,other than learning to program

If you look at the number of possible draws in a 6 number lotto game the largest potential pool of numbers being called is 3 even and 3 odd.

That's why I selected a 50/50 split on odd and even numbers.

The next greatest possibility is is 2 odd and 4 and even vice versa and so on down the chain to 1 even or odd verses one odd or even.

If you pick all odd or all even numbers the statistical probability of your numbers being drawn is very low.

Luckily, I did just scrape by when an all odd - or was it even - set came up in this round.

If there is indeed one purple left after this current round I will be picking a NEW odd even 50/50 mix again.

Just remember the number one rule of gaming theory.

Past results do not affect the outcome of future results.

A 6 even or a 6 odd could very well come out in the next round.

Cheers, and best of luck to those who remain.

Phill

[pcad]

Analysis wouldn't be the way I'd describe my post. More like just agreeing with Walther.

I like the way you split up your numbers between evens and odds. Certainly seems reasonable. What's your opinion on how to distribute 15 numbers over 49 possibilities. At first I thought you picked 3 numbers for each group of ten. I see you picked 4 numbers in the thirties, but only 2 numbers in the forties. If I follow your reasoning for the odd/even numbers, I'd have thought you'd have picked 3 in the thirties and 3 in the forties. LW

In these lotteries it hardly makes a difference since they don't last very long. Almost any set of numbers might prevail. Yours seem like good numbers, I can't see why you'd change them.

While we understand that the chance of matching is the same each round, the probability for surviving a number of consecutive rounds is not. The probability of surviving 10 consecutive rounds with 15 numbers now hovers at about 0.54

Good luck to all in the future rounds.