Purple Lottery 1

[maztec]

What I mean to say is; there is a sizeable amount of numbers with less than 3 selections, as that grows the chances of winning is reduced significantly. We are now at the stage where we could THEORETICALLY have winners in the next draw.

Huh?

[Chyron]

If you plot out all of the selections and add up how many people selected x, It's probable than >6 of the range of numbers have 3 or fewer people selecting them. Any given number can allow whoever selected that number access through, I think what he's saying is enough of the potential selected numbers are at 3 'selectors' or below now. The problem remains that there are six opportunities.

[Naz737]

OR! You need to hit all of your numbers... ?

[pcad]

In order for someone to win there must be at least one number which has been selected by 1,2 or 3 people. If every number is choosen by at least 4 people there cannot be any winners in that round. That would need 196 number selections to guarantee that there can't be a winner. With a max of 15 selections, 13 people could choose 195 numbers. There would have to be one more person in order to make sure there isn't a winning number. That's only if they pick exactly the right numbers with a minimum of number duplication. It certainly would require a lot more contestants if their number selections were random. I don't think there's a chance that there've been enough entries to do this. So there's probably always been a bunch of numbers that have only been selected 1, 2 or 3 times.

All Joe said was that there were quite a few numbers that have been selected by only 1, 2 or 3 contestants. I don't think that really tells us very much. Certainly as people are eliminated the number of possible winning numbers will grow. But that isn't the only thing that makes it possible to have a winner. The critical issue is how many combinations of lotto numbers will eliminate all but 1, 2 or 3 players.

If Joe is right about the remote chance of winners in the next round, that really means that there are at least 7 numbers that were not picked by most of the players. That combination would eliminate all but 1, 2 or 3 players. If there is only one combination that will do that, well, that's as likely as winning lotto. I would say there's a lot more than just one combination that would do that. I still don't think it's very likely that well have winners any time soon.

I think we'll continue to lose people one by one until there are 4 left. Even then it could take awhile to eliminate just one more person.

[maztec]

Huh?

I do not understand where the claim about if one of the numbers drawn is only used by 3 people or less, they win. Where are you getting that from?

[pcad]

All that means is that if four or more players have picked a particular number and that number is picked by the lotto machine all four advance without winning. If 3 of the four players picked a number that is in the lotto draw they might win if the fourth player doesn't match any other numbers. It doesn't guarantee a win it just makes a win possible.

If 3 players match 1 number each, even of they are all different numbers, they will win as long as the fouth player doesn't match any numbers. Hence at least one number, in this case 3 numbers, we're selected by 1, 2 or 3 people that were still in the lottery.

Let's say 3 players had identical numbers and the fourth had none of the same numbers. Now the 3 match 1 number and so might win. Now the only case that makes a difference is when the fourth player doesn't match and the 3 win. Of course all the numbers those 3 had picked had 3 people selecting them, but that wasn't enough to clinch a win. They needed to eliminate all the other players to win. That's more important than the number of players that picked a certain number/numbers.

You need to match and eliminate others to win. Joe's statement is about matching, not eliminating and so it's not very helpful in predicting results.

So much for ennui I guess.

[QuantumCow]

I'm out =(

[TheWaddler]

I don't quite know how people are getting confused by this, (maybe over-thinking things!!), but how I read it is:

If a certain selection of numbers come up in the next draw, only three people out of the remaining group will match at least one number with those numbers, therefore securing a Purple.

If any other selection of numbers come up, then there will be more people matching numbers and therefore the draw will have to continue for another week/draw.

Joe can obviously work out that certain selection of numbers because he knows what everyone's numbers are. But the chances of that certain selection of numbers coming up in the draw, by my guessing, is very slim. So I expect this lottery to continue for another draw/week at least.

[pcad]

Without over thinking it, I agree, there's probably a 7 number combo that eliminates all but 1, 2 or 3 players.

With only a handful of players I think the amount of duplication between their numbers will determine whether we eliminate one at a time or a bunch at a time.

Quantum, sorry you didn't advance, but it's not over till the fat revo sings.

[QuantumCow]

So I expect this lottery to continue for another draw/week at least.

Understatement =] I expect this lottery to continue for at least a month more.