Purple Lottery 3

General Questions.

What is the highest round you've survived?

Round 1
3
18%
Round 2
2
12%
Round 3
1
6%
Round 4
1
6%
Round 5
3
18%
Round 6
0
No votes
Round 7
0
No votes
Round 8
0
No votes
Round 9
0
No votes
Round 10+
7
41%
 
Total votes: 17

bluesign2k
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Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Post by bluesign2k »

Wow. You guys have been hard at work haven't you?! You also know that you love that I haven't given full stats just so you can work it out... it's like I'm giving you a new puzzle for free. How generous am I?! :lol:

Peter, I'm impressed that you managed to almost figure out the groups. Since you were so close, I'll give you the actual sets of picks:

Numbers picked 3 times: 6, 11, 15, 25, 33
Numbers picked twice: 1, 3, 8, 9, 10, 23, 34, 37, 38, 40, 44, 45, 48
Numbers picked once: 4, 5, 7, 12, 13, 14, 18, 20, 22, 24, 26, 27, 28, 29, 31, 36, 39, 41, 42, 43, 46, 49
Numbers not picked: 2, 16, 17, 19, 21, 30, 32, 35, 47
walther wrote:...Also, based on my keen observation the only person missing in my list, is the person with 14. I think I know all the other people. And if I'm right in my assumptions kudos to EABlade 8-)
I doubt you know who has 10 numbers because as far as I can tell, they're not registered on the forum. At least, I haven't been able to tie the name/email with a forum user. EABlade was unfortunately eliminated a few rounds ago too.

FWIW, if you want to post your numbers then that's fine with me. As you said, all of this makes little or no difference to the end result.

Oh, and since quite a few would like the next set of rounds to include all 7 balls, that's what we'll do :) Just don't blame me if we're sitting here this time next year waiting for 2 people to become 1 :P
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walther
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Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Post by walther »

No, I have no idea what numbers people have. Just the names, which seems to be wrong. Thought for sure EABlade was the person with 9.

I'm not sure if knowing who was elminated in a round without knowing their numbers would help. Of course the last 5 could just post ther number to make it easier ;) of course then they probably couldn't reuse those numbers in the next round :?

Also forgot Chris said 2 people matched on 48 in his last update.


Hmmm, I have way too many numbers in my set that are shared by others :evil:
3SE/EX>BU Open|GR Open|BR Open|AG(1) Broken|AG(2) Open|AU Broken...again???
90EX>BU|GR|BR|AG|AU
3LE>BL Open|LI Closed|Handmade Closed
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rodrigue10
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Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Post by rodrigue10 »

Wednesday September 18th, 2013
Lotto numbers for the
16th round of the 3rd Purple Lottery

2-4-5-17-22-29-14

Looks like I'm out... :cry: it was a long run though...

If it makes everyone else happy, i had 14 numbers...

Good luck to all those remaining
Last edited by rodrigue10 on Wed Sep 18, 2013 9:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
OP- CE Set #22 BU GR BR TI R BL OR Obs Set V2 Set AG AU LM mini GM HM CU AQ MT IN PU SM
CL-

R2 - Voyager #25:
OP - Prototype 1
CL - ♀ ♁ ♂ ⚳ ♃ ♄ ♅ ♆ ♇ Eris, Makemake
pcad
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Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Post by pcad »

Wednesday 18th, 2013
Lotto numbers for the
16th round of the 3rd Purple Lottery

2 - 4 - 5 - 14 - 17 - 22 - 29

2 and 17 are orphans
4, 5, 14, 22, 29 have all been picked only once. Hmm....
Last edited by pcad on Sat Sep 21, 2013 2:33 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Peter

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walther
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Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Post by walther »

Did 2 people have 2 matches in this round?
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pcad
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Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Post by pcad »

We'll find out soon.
Peter

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walther
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Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Post by walther »

So, I had 1 match....
I wonder who 's left ;)
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3SE/EX>BU Open|GR Open|BR Open|AG(1) Broken|AG(2) Open|AU Broken...again???
90EX>BU|GR|BR|AG|AU
3LE>BL Open|LI Closed|Handmade Closed
Obsession>BU Open|GR Open|BL Open|RD Open|BUPro Open
3SE>RD Open|OR Closed|TI Closed
PU 3rd Round Winner
bluesign2k
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Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Post by bluesign2k »

Can confirm 1 elimination, only 4 remain.
More info tomorrow.
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smiteo
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Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Post by smiteo »

ok, probability students, at this point what is the chance that more than one person will be knocked out next round?
OOOOOOOOOO? proud owner of set #29, BL09, R00009, OR00009, LM00009, HM-09 and BlackV2obs
pcad
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Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Post by pcad »

Since this lottery started with 8 people with 15 numbers and there are only 2 left, having a lot of numbers doesn't guarantee success. As we've seen, those with fewer numbers can outlast those with more numbers.

The probability on surviving a single round is what the final 4 face on Saturday.
With 9 numbers, 0.78
With10 numbers, 0.82
With 15 numbers, 0.95

The probability of matching at least 1 number 17 consecutive times is quite different, but it doesn't alter the above odds.
For 9 numbers, 0.015
For 10 numbers, 0.034
For 15 numbers, 0.349

These numbers are just probabilities and are useless for predicting the results of a single event.

If no one matches or 4 people match, the lottery continues.
If only 1 person matches, the next lottery will have 3 purples.
If only 2 people match, the next lottery will have 2 purples.
If only 3 people match, the next lottery will have 1 purple.

None of these possibilities would be surprising.
Peter

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