Purple Lottery 3

What is the highest round you've survived?

Round 1
3
18%
Round 2
2
12%
Round 3
1
6%
Round 4
1
6%
Round 5
3
18%
Round 6
0
No votes
Round 7
0
No votes
Round 8
0
No votes
Round 9
0
No votes
Round 10+
7
41%
 
Total votes: 17

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smiteo
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Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Postby smiteo » Thu Sep 19, 2013 12:41 am

pcad wrote:If no one matches or 4 people match, the lottery continues.


that isn't quite true... if no one matches, then this round is over...
OOOOOOOOOO? proud owner of set #29, BL09, R00009, OR00009, LM00009, HM-09 and BlackV2obs

pcad
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Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Postby pcad » Thu Sep 19, 2013 2:16 am

That wasn't how I understood the rules. On the competition page of the Revomaze website it states

Matching any of your numbers then moves you forward into additional draws until winners are found (see rule 7). If no contestant matches a number only those currently remaining in the draw will rollover into the next.

Perhaps clarification is needed by a higher-up.
Peter

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Blue, Green, Bronze, Silver, Gold, Purple Opened
Black V1 + V2, Orange, Red, Titanium, Lime Opened
HandMade Prototypes too scary to reassemble
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pcad
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Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Postby pcad » Thu Sep 19, 2013 3:13 am

The highest frequency numbers in this lottery are : 5, 15, 17, 18
All have been seen 5 times.
Too bad none of the four players picked 17. Oh well...

Using 5, 15, 18 they cover all the rounds so far, except for 2, 8, and 14

Round 2 10 16 32 33 38 40 44
Round 8 3 4 23 27 29 47 49
Round 14 7 24 27 31 33 40 41

As you can see you need at least two more numbers to cover all 16 rounds.

Using numbers that occur the most frequently to cover all the rounds we have
5, 15, 18, 33 or 40, and 27 or any other number in round 8. Lots of combos work.

5 picked 3x
15 picked 1x
18 picked 1x
33 picked 3x
40 picked 2x
27 picked 1x
3, 23, 29, 49 picked 1x

The fewest numbers needed to survive 16 rounds is 5. That's no where close to 9, 10 or 15, so it's still anyone's game.
Good luck on Saturday.
Peter

Gunmetal Unopened
Blue, Green, Bronze, Silver, Gold, Purple Opened
Black V1 + V2, Orange, Red, Titanium, Lime Opened
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smiteo
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Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Postby smiteo » Thu Sep 19, 2013 5:36 am

pcad wrote:That wasn't how I understood the rules. On the competition page of the Revomaze website it states

Matching any of your numbers then moves you forward into additional draws until winners are found (see rule 7). If no contestant matches a number only those currently remaining in the draw will rollover into the next.

Perhaps clarification is needed by a higher-up.


they must have added that after the original rules were published.... I expressly asked Joseph that before it all started...
OOOOOOOOOO? proud owner of set #29, BL09, R00009, OR00009, LM00009, HM-09 and BlackV2obs

bluesign2k
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Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Postby bluesign2k » Thu Sep 19, 2013 10:57 am

smiteo wrote:
pcad wrote:That wasn't how I understood the rules. On the competition page of the Revomaze website it states

Matching any of your numbers then moves you forward into additional draws until winners are found (see rule 7). If no contestant matches a number only those currently remaining in the draw will rollover into the next.

Perhaps clarification is needed by a higher-up.


they must have added that after the original rules were published.... I expressly asked Joseph that before it all started...

This has been a rule since the first set of rules that I saw, posted by Joseph. If nobody matches then everybody still in continues to the next draw. That's said, it's slightly academic because I can't see all 4 people remaining matching 0 numbers.
Puzzle wiki:
Puzzle Place
|11SE: BUopenGRopenBRopenAGv1deadAGv2repairAUwaitingTIopen
11LE: BLopenRopenORopenHMrepairLMPU
25: BUopenGRopenBRopenAGv1openAGv2openAUopen
Ob: BUopenGRopenBLopenBLv2openRD
Minirepair
1st to open a ReVoMaze

pcad
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Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Postby pcad » Thu Sep 19, 2013 3:53 pm

Watch, the next drawing will be. 2-16-19-21-30-35-47

Or some other combination of numbers not picked.
Peter

Gunmetal Unopened
Blue, Green, Bronze, Silver, Gold, Purple Opened
Black V1 + V2, Orange, Red, Titanium, Lime Opened
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walther
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Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Postby walther » Thu Sep 19, 2013 3:57 pm

bluesign2k wrote: That's said, it's slightly academic because I can't see all 4 people remaining matching 0 numbers.


Unfortunately, it's a real possibility given the number of balls that no one has 9 plus whatever was added with the departure of rodrigue10. If his set reduded it another 6, we're talking almost 30% of the options with no owners. Personally, I don't think it will happen, but if I have to go I hope I can take all of you with me :twisted: I don't know if I can take another round. The closer it gets, the more I look at numbers a probabilities as if that wil somehow influence the next draw.
At least I haven't gotten to the point of wearing the same clothes and doing the same routine every Wed and Sat... Well it is now "american" football season so there may be a little routine on Sat :D

Looking back it's funny what a statistally underperformer I was in the last round. I should have average matching more than 2 balls per draw or 30.6%, but in actuallity it was 20%. At least this this round I'm a little better at 29%.

Watch, the next drawing will be. 2-16-19-21-30-35-47

Actually I'm hoping for something like that with just 1 of these thrown in 6,11,15,25,33 :D
3SE/EX>BU Open|GR Open|BR Open|AG(1) Broken|AG(2) Open|AU Broken...again???
90EX>BU|GR|BR|AG|AUNot sent yet
3LE>BL Open|LI Closed|Handmade Closed
Obsession>BU Open|GR Open|BL Open|RD Open|BUPro Open
3SE>RD Open|OR Closed|TI Undecided
PU 3rd Round Winner

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smiteo
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Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Postby smiteo » Thu Sep 19, 2013 4:31 pm

my mistake... I must then hope for only one winner this session (to give maximum chance for the next round :)
OOOOOOOOOO? proud owner of set #29, BL09, R00009, OR00009, LM00009, HM-09 and BlackV2obs

rodrigue10
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Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Postby rodrigue10 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 4:58 pm

Here are my numbers guys...have fun with your stats:

1-3-7-8-9-10-25-26-28-34-37-41-45-48

I think I had 4 numbers that were my own (7-26-28-41)...the other 10 I shared.
OP- CE Set #22 BU GR BR TI R BL OR Obs Set V2 Set AG AU LM mini GM HM CU AQ MT IN PU
CL-SM

R2 - Voyager #25:
OP - Prototype 1
CL - ♀ ♁ ♂ ⚳ ♃ ♄ ♅ ♆ ♇ Eris, Makemake

pcad
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Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Postby pcad » Thu Sep 19, 2013 10:11 pm

While this is blatant speculation, I've been trying to figure out each persons number distribution. I can't tell which specific numbers they have, but i can guess as to how many of their numbers have been picked once twice or three times.

For the 9 and 10 number people, I'd expect both of them to have about 5 unique numbers each and 2-3 numbers each of the twice and thrice piced numbers.

For the two 15 number holders, I'd expect them to have 8-9 unique numbers each. They should have 3-4 numbers in the twice and thrice picked numbers too.

13 numbers are orphans, 22 numbers are unique, 5 have been picked twice and 4 have been picked 3 times.

The numbers that have been picked have a pretty even distribution, so the chances are still pretty good for all four.

The orphans are clustered in the teens, twenties and thirties. Number towards either end favor the lottery continuing, numbers clumped in the middle favor this lottery ending.

Just more useless speculation on my part.
Peter

Gunmetal Unopened
Blue, Green, Bronze, Silver, Gold, Purple Opened
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