Purple Lottery 3

What is the highest round you've survived?

Round 1
3
18%
Round 2
2
12%
Round 3
1
6%
Round 4
1
6%
Round 5
3
18%
Round 6
0
No votes
Round 7
0
No votes
Round 8
0
No votes
Round 9
0
No votes
Round 10+
7
41%
 
Total votes: 17

Chyron
Posts: 659
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2012 3:56 pm
Location: Minnesota

Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Postby Chyron » Tue Sep 17, 2013 7:12 pm

Just to cause problems and be a nerd I'm going to complain about the removal of the bonus ball.

The removal of any ball from the way we have it setup is much more detrimental everyone except those with 15 picks. It still has an effect on them, but not as large

It's actually more detrimental to everyone except those with a single pick, but that's only because those with a single number chosen just don't really have enough odds to remove from them anyways.

The argument could be made that the odds for everyone other than those with 15 picks were abysmal already, which I'd say even though there's the potential that someone with <15 may win in this set of rounds, is true.

But the win/loss curve doesn't just get smaller with the removal of the 7th ball, the curve changes shape, which changes the game.

That being said, and since I've already played devils advocate, I suppose if the lottery was done sooner rather than later I'd be able to stop obsessing over meaningless statistics that probably won't matter to me at all in the end anyways. I guess I'm on the fence here.
Chyron wrote:Sometimes I get the feeling that someone goes around hiding old Puzzles in RevoHQ.

User avatar
Naz737
Posts: 1133
Joined: Sat Mar 12, 2011 9:19 pm
Location: Saint Augustine, FL
Contact:

Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Postby Naz737 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 8:35 pm

LET IT RIDE! (sorry about the extra work, chris!)
R2 Voyager 073, O: Mercury
R1, O: BU, GR, BR, AG, AU, Series Code, PU,
R1 Obs, O: BU Obs, BU Obs Pro, GR Obs, BL Obs V1, BL Obs V2, R Obs,
R1 Limited, O: BL, HM, R, OR, LM, TI, GM, Mini, CU
Paid: Eris, Makemake, Venus, Earth

User avatar
halfbake69
Posts: 615
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2011 12:55 pm
Location: Québec Canada

Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Postby halfbake69 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:07 pm

The less people with 15 number there is the faster so no need to change anything chris !
EX : BlueV2 :D GreenV2 :D BronzeV2 :D BronzeV1 :D Silver :D Orange :D Gold :D Lime :D Red :D Titanium :D Gunmetal :D Copper :D
OBS : Blue :D Bluepro :D BlackV2 :D BlackV1 :D
Mini : blue :D
R2: mercury :D
I don't own any anymore

User avatar
ReVoRabbit
Posts: 1324
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 10:51 pm
Location: The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale
Contact:

Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Postby ReVoRabbit » Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:39 pm

not that it concerns me, or is really any of my business, but changing the rules could eliminate someone who otherwise would have won. this could be a big deal. and while this does take up plenty of additional admin time, is there any rush to end the purple lottery?
THE PROUD OWNER OF REVOMAZE Set #20
Since February 18 2009
Extreme
BU GR BR AG au pu
BL RD hm or ti lm in aq
V2: BU GR BR MINI Marbles Set
Obsession
O v1: BU-P BU GR BL BU GR BL
L v1: Red Red
L v2: BUpro GR BL
Voyager
Wishlist:Ç
Purchased:R2ωξ
Shipped:

pcad
Posts: 1295
Joined: Tue Apr 12, 2011 12:40 am
Location: Central Conneticut, USA

Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Postby pcad » Wed Sep 18, 2013 4:50 am

You just can't stand to see me idle, can you Chris. You give us incomplete info just to see what we can do with it.

We now know that only 5 numbers were picked by 3 people each and these are the most picked numbers amoung the 5 players left. That means no more numbers picked by 4, 5 or 6 people.

You also give us the 9 numbers that no one left has picked. That's increased from 3 to 9.

Then you remind us how many numbers each remaining player has. This gives us 63 numbers picked by 5 people.

We want, or I want, to know about the distribution of numbers picked by 1 or 2 people, but you didn't tell us that did you.

We do have the old distribution and know how many numbers are now picked by 3 people and by no one.

Of the 6 most picked numbers in the old distribution, one is now in the not picked group, the other 5 constitute the entire group of numbers picked by 3 people.

After adjusting for all the numbers not picked we're left with 13 numbers in the old distribution picked by 3 people. None of which are still in that group.

We're left with 13 numbers that used to be in the group picked by 2 people and 9 numbers that were picked by one person each.

Since we know which are not picked and some of the numbers in the once picked group and those picked by three people, we do some simple math. A total of 63 numbers were selected by 5 people. Subtract 5 x 3 for those numbers picked 3 times and subtract 9 for the ones we know were picked only once. We have 39 picks unaccounted for and two groups of thirteen numbers picked either once or twice.

Some can solve this by inspection, some can't. We can write 2 equations. X + Y = 26 and X + 2Y = 39

Substitute and rewrite the equation we get Y + 26 = 39 so Y = 13 and X = 13 too.

So now we know that in the new distribution there are 13 numbers picked twice and 13 + 9 or 22 numbers picked once.

I can even say which numbers are in each group since there are exactly 13 numbers that had been picked 3 times but are no longer in that group. Those are now the picked twice numbers. None of the old picked twice numbers are allowed to stay since we can only have 13 picked twice numbers. All the remaining numbers are added to the existing 9 picked once numbers to total 22 numbers.

In the end you did give us everything needed to know the new distribution. Does this help anyone, no, but it makes a dandy useless information update. Thanks Chris.
Peter

Gunmetal Unopened
Blue, Green, Bronze, Silver, Gold, Purple Opened
Black V1 + V2, Orange, Red, Titanium, Lime Opened
HandMade Prototypes too scary to reassemble
Gold CE set in Clear Sleeves

pcad
Posts: 1295
Joined: Tue Apr 12, 2011 12:40 am
Location: Central Conneticut, USA

Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Postby pcad » Wed Sep 18, 2013 5:02 am

OK, I see now that I can't guarantee that a picked 3 times number can't become a picked once number, or that a picked twice number can't remain a picked twice number. I still think that's less likely than not, and both of these things have to occur the same number of times to keep the 13:22 ratio of picked twice to picked once numbers.

Again this has no influence on the outcome, just useless info.
Peter

Gunmetal Unopened
Blue, Green, Bronze, Silver, Gold, Purple Opened
Black V1 + V2, Orange, Red, Titanium, Lime Opened
HandMade Prototypes too scary to reassemble
Gold CE set in Clear Sleeves

User avatar
walther
Posts: 390
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2009 1:47 pm

Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Postby walther » Wed Sep 18, 2013 2:41 pm

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: You know I've been doing similar stuff with the numbers. The funny thing is that none of it matters, other than keeping your mind busy thinking through possibilities. In essence the die has been cast and none of it matters ;) Since we can't change our picks we are at the mercy of the lottery gods until somone wins or we start again. I found 3 sets of 15 numbers that would win in all but 58 drawings. Those should be good numbers, unfortunately all three sets would have failed in at least 1 of the 3 rounds.

That being said.... what numbers only have a single owner??? oh and then that will all change in a couple hours :lol:
3SE/EX>BU Open|GR Open|BR Open|AG(1) Broken|AG(2) Open|AU Broken...again???
90EX>BU|GR|BR|AG|AUNot sent yet
3LE>BL Open|LI Closed|Handmade Closed
Obsession>BU Open|GR Open|BL Open|RD Open|BUPro Open
3SE>RD Open|OR Closed|TI Undecided
PU 3rd Round Winner

pcad
Posts: 1295
Joined: Tue Apr 12, 2011 12:40 am
Location: Central Conneticut, USA

Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Postby pcad » Wed Sep 18, 2013 4:05 pm

Numbers picked 3 times: 6, 11, 15, 25, 33
Group A of numbers picked twice or once: 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12, 18, 23, 37, 38, 42, 48
Group B of numbers picked twice or once: 10, 13, 14, 20, 22, 28, 29, 31, 34, 40, 43, 44, 45
Numbers picked once: 7, 24, 26, 27, 36, 39, 41, 46, 49
Numbers not picked: 2, 16, 17, 19, 21, 30, 32, 35, 47

Group A are 13 numbers that had been picked 3 times in the old distribution.
Group B are 13 numbers that had been picked 2 times in the old distribution.

There are 13 numbers picked twice and 22 numbers picked once currently.

If we make an assumption that it's more likely a number that had been picked 3 times will now be picked twice as opposed to now being picked once, the numbers currently picked once will be those in group B and those that we know have been picked once.

Those are: 7, 10, 13, 14, 20, 22, 24, 26, 27, 28, 29, 31, 34, 36, 39, 40, 41, 43, 44, 45, 46, 49

While I realize this may be wrong, it's my best guess at which numbers have been picked only once.
Last edited by pcad on Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Peter

Gunmetal Unopened
Blue, Green, Bronze, Silver, Gold, Purple Opened
Black V1 + V2, Orange, Red, Titanium, Lime Opened
HandMade Prototypes too scary to reassemble
Gold CE set in Clear Sleeves

User avatar
walther
Posts: 390
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2009 1:47 pm

Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Postby walther » Wed Sep 18, 2013 4:51 pm

Numbers not picked: 2, 16, 17, 19, 21, 30, 39, 32, 35, 47

I believe based on my calcs 18 & 20 should be in the 1 group, leaving 24 unknown if they are in the 1 or 2 group. Except that we know 11 of them are in the 1 group.

Numbers picked once: 7, 18, 20, 24, 26, 27, 36, 39, 41, 46, 49

Also, based on my keen observation the only person missing in my list, is the person with 14. I think I know all the other people. And if I'm right in my assumptions kudos to EABlade 8-)
3SE/EX>BU Open|GR Open|BR Open|AG(1) Broken|AG(2) Open|AU Broken...again???
90EX>BU|GR|BR|AG|AUNot sent yet
3LE>BL Open|LI Closed|Handmade Closed
Obsession>BU Open|GR Open|BL Open|RD Open|BUPro Open
3SE>RD Open|OR Closed|TI Undecided
PU 3rd Round Winner

pcad
Posts: 1295
Joined: Tue Apr 12, 2011 12:40 am
Location: Central Conneticut, USA

Re: Purple Lottery 3 - Rounds 1 to ?

Postby pcad » Wed Sep 18, 2013 8:13 pm

I agree. Initially I didn't take into account the information that identified 18 and 20 as being picked once.

When you say you know who's left do you mean just the names or the numbers they picked or both. I know one person had mentioned a unique method of picking numbers, but he never said what they are. Without knowing how many numbers he has and and more explicit information about other peoples numbers I can't determine exactly what numbers he has.

Heck, I don't know what numbers anyone has other than for myself. If you know how to do that let me know. One possible source of info is if a person announces which round they got eliminated on in previous lottories. That's something I haven't been paying close attention to.
Peter

Gunmetal Unopened
Blue, Green, Bronze, Silver, Gold, Purple Opened
Black V1 + V2, Orange, Red, Titanium, Lime Opened
HandMade Prototypes too scary to reassemble
Gold CE set in Clear Sleeves


Return to “Purple General”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest