Purple Lottery 2

[Dorothea]

Still in.

[pcad]

Thanks a lot Chris!

Double digits are 10-99.

So if at least 10 people were eliminated on the second round, and the percent eliminated has to round out to 17.5%, the smallest number of people that got to round 2 would be 57. This would leave 47 people for round 3.

You also said that all the guesses for how many entered round two were too low. Since 63 was the highest number mentioned, there has to be at least 64. The smallest number greater than 63 where the percent eliminated rounds out to 17.5% is 80. Then 14 people would be eliminated leaving 66 people for round 3.

Now, the smallest number of people in round 1 where the percent eliminated is rounded to 36% and leaves 80 people for round 2 is 125.

Much to my dismay, the percent eliminated were exactly 36% and 17.5%, no rounding needed. You did say they were rounded so I have to assume the initial number of people was greater than 125.

It's too bad 57 and 63 were eliminated for being too small. They also fit all the criteria.
If there were 89 in round 1, eliminating 32 would leave 57 in round 2. Eliminating 10 in round 2 leaves 47 for round 3.
If there were 98 in round 1, eliminating 35 would leave 63 in round 2. Eliminating 11 in round 2 leaves 55 for round 3.

Now what's the upper limit?

If 99 people were eliminated in round 2, the greatest number entering round 2 would 567. This would mean that 468 people would enter round 3. The greatest number of people in round 1 would then be 892.

If we include the situation where there are 57 people in round 2. The ranges are as follows.
89 - 892 people in round 1.
57 - 567 people in round 2.
47 - 468 people in round 3.

892 people in round 1 is silly, let's limit the number eliminated in round 2 to 20.

This leaves a much more reasonable number in round 1 of 178. Eliminate 64, leaves 114 in round 2. Eliminate 20, leaves 94 for round 3. Still too high in my mind, but better than 892.

If the minimum number of round 2 survivors really is 47 and the poll has only 6, there's some serious under reporting going on.

[bluesign2k]

Hehe. I thought you‘d like that.
Less than 100 people started round 1. The poll is massively under-reported.

[pcad]

Yeah, too bad about the poll. Even in the first rounds of the 1st lottery there were only 24 people that voted in the poll. At least 2 of the 3 people that won purples used the poll and posted their progress all the way through. This might be a long, quiet lottery this time.

[Killerkel]

Hmm, I don't get it...what is the big secret...why don't you just tell us how many people left in or out. Surely we would all be a bit more interested in this process if we saw the numbers of players involved and left in each draw.

anyway I'm still in.

[bluesign2k]

Because just telling you would be boring. To be fair, are you not getting much more info then the previous rounds? pcad's done a pretty good job of analysing what you've got so far... maybe he's even got it right
When there's around 10 people(ish) left, then you'll know

[Sejanus]

Still in

[halfbake69]

In

[EABlade]

lol well I can tell you this, each round I'm still around the higher my matches are the more we lose as no one has my numbers and I did not pick them lol everyone helped pick mine as random as this contest was I wanted Unique numbers so I was the fill in

[smiteo]

I think the main reason the number isn't published is that it would be demoralizing to hear the staggering amount of entries