Purple Lottery 1

[Naz737]

I was thinking of it like tickets to a sporting event. I have tickets to the next (sport) game/match/race.

[pcad]

As a matter of fact I do have a worthless update for you.

There have been 12 rounds and at most 15 contestants are left.

The fewest numbers needed to survive to this point is still 4.

Since there haven't been any numbers picked more than 4x, a minimum of 3 numbers are needed. There's no combination of 3 numbers that cover all twelve rounds the way this lottery has gone.

The most common numbers have been 14, 19, 44, 46, 48. with the addition of the number 2 there are several four number combos that work

If five or more numbers are needed, then there are many combinations that cover the 12 rounds just fine. With my numbers I need only 6 of them to cover the 12 rounds. I used to need only 5 before today.

My feeling is that each time the minimum number of needed numbers goes up there'll be a few more people eliminated. That almost happened today. Of today's 7 numbers, the number 10 has not been seen yet and 8, 22, 24 and 37 were only seen once before. The only reason the minimum number didn't increase was the number 2.

Going back to the numbers quantumcow gave us a while ago, those with 15 numbers had a 50% chance of getting to the twelfth round. That goes down by about 3% each round. I would think we should start losing people more rapidly soon.

In the meantime, how 'bout that mini Revo. Isn't it just the cutest little thing.......

Fini

[pcad]

I see your point rabbit. I think most of us are using naz's interpretation where we're going to participate in the upcoming round. Another way to do this is how many rounds has a person survived? In that case yours is the correct interpretation. Next time the poll is redone the wording should be less ambiguous.

Fini

[maztec]

Eh? I used Rabbit's language for the poll, I just dropped the "I made it to ...." if you vote as if it is a different question than the last thread, you create a fenceposting problem with one thread being different from the other in how the count accrues.

Intention was to have it be whether you are in the current round or not.

I could have made it a simple boolean, "Are you still in the game?" Yes/No. but that would expect people who drop out to change their vote, which is less likely than those who keep going.

Oh, and, *yawn* still here.

[pcad]

To me the language still looks the same. " how far have you gotten? " to me means what's the last round you participated in. At this point I can say I'm 100% sure that I'm involved with round 13.

BTW I never said I'm on round 13. I said "on to round 13" meaning I've matched in round 12 and now I'm looking forward to seeing how I do in round 13.

To play nice I will now change my vote to round 12.

Fini

[maztec]

Oh now you are just stirring confusion.

[Naz737]

Oh now you are just stirring confusion.

[jerryloo71]

Confusion or not, I matched one number...on to round 13 or for next Draw on Sat 30th

[pcad]

Well, the poll was never really accurate anyway with a good third of the people not using it and others entering silly votes. It was approximate at best. I do hope Joe isn't using it to decide who's still in the running...

Fini

[Dorothea]

In