Re: Purple Lotto Rounds 20-29
Posted: Thu May 23, 2013 7:04 am
Exactly, just like the flip of a coin, or the roll of a die.
The only differance is what the probability is for each round. In one case it's 0.94 and the other is 0.5 .
All I report is the probability of surviving X number of rounds in a row. I've never said the probability for a single round is anything other than 0.94 .
If we wipe the slate clean each round and allow people to pick new numbers each round without any knowlage of previous rounds fine, then the past does not matter. But this isn't the case here. To get to the current round you absolutely must survive all the previous rounds and we can't change our numbers midstream. To get there you need to have picked good numbers. Currently the fewest numbers needed to survive is 8. That has been rising steadily during the lottery. It isn't going to decrease either, only increase. What happens when that number reaches 10, 12, 14, 15 ? It's going to become less likely that you've picked just the right 15 numbers to survive that many rounds.
The history is important since you must survive every round to win. Despite this, the probability of surviving each round is the same.
I think we'll have to agree to disagree. We both agree that the odds of a single event is constant and we agree on how to calculate the odds of surviving a number of rounds in a row. We disagree on whether the past rounds have anything to do with who eventually wins. I say the winner is whoever wins the most consecutive rounds. You say it's whoever survives the current round. Of course the number of people in the current round keeps on getting smaller.
If you're correct we may have another 30 rounds to go or more. I don't think we'll get to round 40 in this first lottery. Let's see what happens.
The only differance is what the probability is for each round. In one case it's 0.94 and the other is 0.5 .
All I report is the probability of surviving X number of rounds in a row. I've never said the probability for a single round is anything other than 0.94 .
If we wipe the slate clean each round and allow people to pick new numbers each round without any knowlage of previous rounds fine, then the past does not matter. But this isn't the case here. To get to the current round you absolutely must survive all the previous rounds and we can't change our numbers midstream. To get there you need to have picked good numbers. Currently the fewest numbers needed to survive is 8. That has been rising steadily during the lottery. It isn't going to decrease either, only increase. What happens when that number reaches 10, 12, 14, 15 ? It's going to become less likely that you've picked just the right 15 numbers to survive that many rounds.
The history is important since you must survive every round to win. Despite this, the probability of surviving each round is the same.
I think we'll have to agree to disagree. We both agree that the odds of a single event is constant and we agree on how to calculate the odds of surviving a number of rounds in a row. We disagree on whether the past rounds have anything to do with who eventually wins. I say the winner is whoever wins the most consecutive rounds. You say it's whoever survives the current round. Of course the number of people in the current round keeps on getting smaller.
If you're correct we may have another 30 rounds to go or more. I don't think we'll get to round 40 in this first lottery. Let's see what happens.