Purple Lottery 1

[smiteo]

It would be nice to get an update (here) on how many entries are left each round.
Granted, it will go on for a few weeks more in my opinion, and then we get to start the
insanity all over again.

[stet]

No, it will be over much sooner than that.

There are only a handful of 13+ people (left) ... and even with that many tickets, getting to round 6 is 50/50 at best. Remember that while you might hit any one draw 90% of the time consecutive hits keeps you alive so with each passing draw the "strength" of the remaining pool of contenders to continually beat the odds is diminishing.

The 11 reported to be going to round 4 will be down to 3 by round 6. As I don't know how many non-reporters there at this stage (5 max ?), an extra round or 2 may be necessary.

The results of the past have no influence on the present or the future. Calculating statics for streaks is mostly just a curiosity. The reality is that everyone who is in the lottery has the same odds for every drawing regardless of how many drawings they have survived up to that point.

Everyone who has 15 numbers (we don’t know how many there are but it is probably at least 10 people) has less than a 7% chance of being eliminated each drawing. So statistically less than 7% of this group of people will be eliminated each drawing, but this will be less than 1 person soon, if it is not there already. That means that of this group of people there is a good likeliness that none of them will be eliminated on any given drawing. And the chances of that happening go up after a few of them do eventually fall out. This is why I say that to get down to 3 or less people remaining will take many drawings.

And this is just considering those with 15 numbers. As I said above, everyone with 13 or more has a greater than 90% chance to survive each drawing and anyone with 10 or more has a greater than 80% chance to survive.

[Rdroege]

So there are 5 votes saying they won a purple. Jokes or is the first round actually over? And if so who lucked out?

[pcad]

Other than the series code winners and BS2K there have been no other people awarded purples. Apparently some people thought they should check that entry for fun.

[RichAE91]

... Apparently some people thought they should check that entry for fun.

Come on tell the truth you were 1 of them weren't you?

[Naz737]

... Apparently some people thought they should check that entry for fun.

Come on tell the truth you were 1 of them weren't you?

[pcad]

Maybe, maybe not.

I don't even know if the three that are getting purples entered the poll.

[bluesign2k]

I ticked the "I've not entered" option... since I haven't entered the lottery.

[maztec]

Feels a little like Monty Hall's "Let's Make a Deal".

I am glad you have that feeling. However, this is not the Monty Hall problem. Monty Hall was a closed system where every door could be used once and only once. A door was taken away from the possibilities before the second round.

Quick demonstration:
Monty Hall - You have three doors. Pick one to get the prize. Each door at the beginning has a 1/3 chance of being the winning door. Once you pick your door, the remaining two doors have a combined chance of being the winning door of 2/3. One of those doors is then eliminated, but the combined odds of those two doors being the winning door is still 2/3, therefor the door that is not yours now has a 2/3 chance of being the winning door. Therefore, it is in your best interest to change doors.

This Case - This case is identical to Monty Hall as long as you make the following change: After showing what is behind one door, you close all of the doors, randomly scramble what is behind all of the doors, and then ask the user if they want to swap to another door or stay in the same place. Thus, you can stay with the door you have or go with either of the other doors, including the one that was reclosed. In straight statistics, you have no better idea where the prize is than you did at the beginning, which leaves the odds at 1/3. However, if I remember my statistics correctly, there is a slight (very slight, tiny, small, miniscule) improvement of the odds that you will win if you stay with the door you had rather than pick a new door. However, I think the true random nature of this actually eliminates that slight increase even.

[Naz737]

2 - 14 - 20 - 23 - 24 - 30 - 22

In!