REVOMAZE User Group

I would love to know the number of people in the lottery as well as the number of people who survived through this first drawing.

We have lost 1/3 of our initial entrants.

RevoGuy wrote:We have lost 1/3 of our initial entrants.

oh I get what you mean.

Ignore previous comments.

Some calcuations, although without much more of a conclusion:

Based on Maztec's tabulation and extrapolation, 19% of people would have dropped out (excel spreadsheet attached). Most likely though, since roughly 1/3 of people dropped out, there are more lower number people, since they boost the expected dropout rate. Adding more higher number people would have to be balanced out by adding even more lower number people. This would make sense since higher numbered people are likely to be more excited about revomazes than lower number people, and thus would be more likely to report what they have on the forum. Lower number people don't really change the odds for higher number people though, so this doesn't really give us that much extra information about how many higher number people there are, except that the more higher number people are in the lottery above those reported, the more lower number people must also be in the lottery, so it kind of skews it towards adding less people rather than more. Without adding any higher number people, one would have to add on the order of 10 lower number people to balance it out. If you were to add more higher number people to extrapolate to 1/3 people not reporting, then you would have to add 15 people lower number people also.
Rich

I think the poll Purple Entries justifies your reasoning Rich

Based on the information in this thread there are at least 30 participants in the lottery. There is a minimum of 19 people advancing to round 2. There could be as many as 25 advancing since some have not said if they matched or not, which is fine since sharing that info is voluntary.

If there are 30 in the lottery, 19 advancing agrees with Joe's statement that 2/3 are advancing. If 25 advance, then there are 38 in the lottery.

Looking at who's posted in this thread, there are 45 members that have posted. Three of them already have been awarded Purples. I'd be very surprised if there's more than 40 of us in the lottery.

No statistics were used in the making of this post.

If that's true, then I'd be happy if they just let the 40 in the lottery buy purples at a reasonable price =] 40 purples would still make it a super rare puzzle. They can even make a little bit of profit, and then everyone wins.

QuantumCow wrote:If that's true, then I'd be happy if they just let the 40 in the lottery buy purples at a reasonable price =] 40 purples would still make it a super rare puzzle. They can even make a little bit of profit, and then everyone wins.

Except for the people who bought in to the RevoMaze Craze years ago, when we thought there would be a contest of skill that has devolved in to a contest of luck powered by purchasing power.

It certainly stinks that not everyone will get a Purple. But I'd like to see it as a luck game based on the greatest supporters as a thank you... Perhaps?

For this to be THAT rare... for a select few to win... The few that put in that much time to be a part of the modified speed competition have a greater chance... I certainly didn't meet the time line to be a part of that competition but with purchasing the series, REpurchasing the Collection, and then a handful of prototypes/one of a kinds... i have upwards of ~20 Revo V1s. (or should once everything gets sent).

Long story short... i consider myself lucky to have gotten a chance at all to win a purple.

If you have 15 numbers, you are pretty much guaranteed to get a purple. (unless there's more than 10 15 numbered people, but I don't think there are). My prediction is that 1 or at absolute most 2 of the 15 numbered people won't get a purple.