Revomaze Competition! 10 X Revomaze Purple Up For Grabs

[ezamover]

Wouldn't ALVIN be more appropriate ?

[757driver]

Email sent numbers selected but no confirmation as of yet. How do we know if Joseph got them?

Don

[Chyron]

Faith

[Naz737]

One more week!

[Sejanus]

I am hoping a full listing of people & their entries will be posted once the entry date has passed. It would build excitement.. and also allow everyone to see what is going on. Always good!

[ezamover]

Given that the option to remain anonymous if you win is in the terms and conditions of this comp, I doubt that will be happening.

[maztec]

Could still post all the entries. Heck, we could post our own entries.

Good to have the official opinion though.

[pcad]

I'm still a little unclear about how the numbers we picked and the Lotto numbers are supposed to work.

Typically 6 different numbers are selected from 50 possible numbers. This happens twice a week, Wednesday and Saturday.

When the rules say that if you match any number you go on to the next drawing, do they mean the next number picked that day or the next time the lotto is played a few days later?

If it's the next number picked, then it seems sequential which doesn't make sense. I don't think they mean to match more than one number a day.

The way I think it goes is the 6 numbers are picked and anyone that matches a single number gets to "compete" with only those that also matched at least 1 number the next time Lotto is played a few days later.The rest sit out until the the first purple or the first 3 purples are won. Then everyone that didn't "win" a purple get to start all over until there are no more purples left.

I think the only sure statement I can make about this is that the fastest all 10 purples could be awarded is in 2 weeks.

Wait, I guess if there are only ten or fewer "competitors" then they get their Purples and go home. Possible, but unlikely.

Let's assume there are more than 10 competitors and we do the Lotto thing. There's really no way to tell how long this process will take. If there are 6 numbers that no one picked, then no one advances and we try again in a few days. If there are more than three contestants advancing on a given day, they do it again until there are 1, 2 or 3 that match a number. If 4 or more match a number or none of them match a number, they all advance.

The only way I can see a need to break a tie is if there are 4 contestants and they each have only 1 number and it's the same number for all of them, they will all match or not match and advance to the next day forever. Pretty unlikely, don't you think?

A more likely situation is 4 people, each with 5 numbers and only a few duplicate numbers. Let's say 15 distinct numbers among them. I'd say that there's a good chance none of them will match a number. Then they advance to try again. How long will it take to find the winner/winners is a good question. I think it depends on how similar their numbers are to each other.

So, do I have this right or not?

Another thing I was wondering about is whether they'll announce how many (not who) advance to the next round after each Lotto drawing?

[maztec]

Well, statistically, it is possible that Purple would never be awarded.

The rules are fairly clear on how it works. I am still not sure why there is confusion. However, to clarify, the process according to the rules is as follows:

1) Each person picks between 0 and 15 numbers out of 49. Each persons set is Sp. (S sub p - set of numbers per person)

2) Each drawing 7 numbers are picked. The set of numbers picked is Sn (S sub n - set of numbers picked)

3) If any one of Sn is in Sp that is if any of Sn is contained in Sp you go to the next drawing.

4) The drawing is repeated and each persons numbers are compared until 3 or fewer people are left.

5) Once three or fewer people are left, those 3 or less people are allocated Purple mazes and the contest starts again.

6) This repeats until 10 mazes are allocated.

So, the fastest this could occur assumes that each drawing results in only 3 people who win except the last time which results in 1 person. So you have 4 drawings, which is 2 weeks. However, the odds are greatly in favor of there being many more than one drawing. And, here is the fun part. Let's say you get down to a group of 4 people. There is an actual chance that NONE of them will be selected for a number, which eliminates them, nobody gets it, and the process starts again. Then again, the odds are higher that all four end up having a valid number, and it just rolls over one more week, forever.

The odds of this thing are in favor of it taking bloody-well-forever to allocate all ten mazes.

The dumb thing is I have not had to deal with probability and statistics in so long that I cannot recall how to actually calculate the odds in this situation. And my Googlefoo is similarly failing me for revealing the formula. The base question is based on a few assumptions. Only one of which I'm going to expressly state -- Let's assume that ONLY the people on these forums who spoke up in this thread: http://www.revomaze.co.uk/phpBB3/viewto ... f=7&t=1672 have actually entered to win a Purple (I doubt it). But we'll just assume it. Which gives us 27 people who have entered on the following spread:
1 person has 2 numbers (1p x 2n)
1p x 6n
4p x 8n
6p x 9n
2p x 10n
2p x 12n
3p x 14n
8p x 15n


So the question becomes:
Given the spread above, what are the odds that in any given week there is a winner; and then extrapolate to the odds of how many weeks this will take.
It all starts with 8 people have chosen 15 out of 49 numbers and of those 49 numbers 7 will be drawn each week. What I cannot recall is how to calculate the odds of any single digit in a set of 7 chosen from a set of 49 being within a set of 15. And any search I've done on the topic pulls up lottery odds which are only semi-relevant. Plus far too many how to win the lottery articles.

Would be interesting to see someone run the numbers, and share their methodology for it. However, if only one number were drawn each week, the people with 15 numbers would have a 30% chance of one of their numbers being that number. That right there is pretty good odds that this is going to go on for some time.

Somehow, I don't expect there to be a set of winners for at least 3 or 4 drawings.

[pcad]

Pretty similar to what I thought it would be.

I thought there were 6 numbers instead of 7 each time. Just shows you how often I play Lotto.

I assumed that if no one won, only those in the last round would advance until the winners were determined. I didn't expect everyone to be eligible to advance if no one matched a number.

So why's the tie breaking rule needed?