Revomaze Competition! 10 X Revomaze Purple Up For Grabs

[maztec]

No attachment on your monte carlo simulation.

I'm trying to think of why we cannot share our numbers come Saturday.

[QuantumCow]

Attached is a (hard to understand, probably useless without further description) spreadsheet where I calculated how long I would expect the competition to run, under the assumption that there are exactly 12 people with 15 numbers. Since there are more people than this, this can probably be seen as a lower bound on how long the competition will run.

My thinking is that if there are 12 people with 15 numbers, you have to eliminate 9 of them, at least, for the contest to end. Really there are more people to eliminate, but at the very least you have to eliminate those 9.

My conclusion is that I would expect to have to wait on average at least 17 lottery pulls, or 8 and a half weeks. There's a 50% chance it would end before 17 pulls (row AH), and an 80% chance it would end before 21 pulls.

What does that mean for me as a 10-number guy? Since my chance of winning a given round is roughly 80%, and I would have to win all 17 pulls, I have less than 0.8^17= 0.02 = 2% chance of winning a purple =( Furthermore, this is an upper bound, if there are indeed 12 people with 15 numbers, since really in order for me to have any chance at all of winning, 10 15-number people would have to be eliminated.

If I had finished calculating this before, I might have bought extra revos to boost my chances to 15 numbers!

This is not even taking into account the 14 number people who would boost the length of the contest even more, and make it even less likely for lower numbered people.

What does all this mean? I am a bad graduate student who has been procrastinating his homework for a good 4 hours or more now, and I have excel spreadsheets and shattered purple dreams to prove it! =P

[maztec]

What does all this mean? I am a bad graduate student who has been procrastinating his homework for a good 4 hours or more now, and I have excel spreadsheets and shattered purple dreams to prove it! =P

I think you should win, simply because of the amount of time you put in to doing that analysis.

[QuantumCow]

What does all this mean? I am a bad graduate student who has been procrastinating his homework for a good 4 hours or more now, and I have excel spreadsheets and shattered purple dreams to prove it! =P

I think you should win, simply because of the amount of time you put in to doing that analysis.

It's a math puzzle, I couldn't help it =] I suffer among friends though.

[pcad]

On the lottery site it gives the time for the Sat drawing as 7:30pm. It only lists a recap time for the Wed. Drawing as 10:30pm. Is the Wed. Drawing done at 7:30 pm also?

Perhaps we should have a thread for the drawings and any comments about them.

[Naz737]

Good luck, everyone!

[Alimorris]

Good luck, everyone!

Well said Naz!
It's all about chance from here on in........

Good luck to all

[TheWaddler]

Good luck

[TheWaddler]

I got none (I think!), I'm out!!

[prodigy]

What is the correct row for todays lotto?